Summer Marin County Residential Real Estate Update

July 15, 2025

Buyers are taking advantage of the softer market

The National Picture

In a recent forecast, Realtor.com stated “with inventory on the rise and more than 1 in 5 sellers cutting prices, the market is tilting back toward balance, marked by slowing price growth and increasing buyer leverage.”

Marin is Different! Well a little.

Marin real estate predictably has two busy seasons (Spring and Fall) and two slower periods each year (Summer and Winter). As we have now transitioned from the busiest of seasons into the summer lull when so many people head off to Tahoe or Italy, its a good time to reflect on what's happened so far this year - and its certainly been interesting.

In 2025 we finally saw listing volume return to pre-pandemic levels as homeowners in the "wrong" home started to let go of their low interest rate loans in order to get to the "right" place for them. With no rate reductions in site after 3 years it was time to stop waiting and hoping.

This increase of inventory, coupled with the continued elevated interest rates and political & economic uncertainty created a mismatch between buyers and sellers in many areas, but it hasn't been uniform across the county.

As more companies insist on having their employees come to the office the towns closest to the Golden Gate Bridge have seen the strongest real estate markets with prices staying around their spring 2022 peaks, while the towns further out have seen prices soften as buyer demand has declined significantly.

This trend can be illustrated by comparing the Zillow "Zestimate" charts for randomly selected properties in San Geronimo Valley, Ross Valley and Mill Valley, as seen below.

San Geronimo Valley

Where prices peaked in spring 2022 and have retreated considerably in the last 3 years.

San Anselmo

Where prices peaked in spring 2022 and softnened in the last 3 years.

Mill Valley

Where prices have remained pretty stable since the peak in spring 2022 with seasonal peaks and troughs.

Meanwhile there has been a increasing preference among buyers for move in ready properties. As the cost of materials and labor have risen considerably over the last few years, buyers have been more likely to pass over properties that have perceived flaws.

Consequently there is still strong competition for some properties - well maintained or renovated homes in prime locations that have been well presented and priced still see multiple offers and may close 20% or more above the listing price, but in general these are the exceptions, and it is now very common to see just one offer on a property putting the singular buyer in a far stronger negotiating position.

Cancelled listings hit a 15 year high

With the summer lull comes a slew of cancelled listings - owners of properties that didn't sell in the busy spring season withdraw their listings for the summer to formulate a new plan - upgrade the presentation and re-list in the fall, rent the property or stay put. This year we've seen the most cancelled listings since 2010 (which was the height of the great recession's market collapse). Many of these cancelled listing may still be available, but those that haven't been withdrawn are likely to be listed by very motivated sellers.

I'm often asked whether a particular offer would be "insulting" to the sellers. My response is usually that any offer is the beginning of a conversation, and that is always worthwhile. It is also important to communicate with the listing agent before submitting a below asking price offer, and it can take a while to reach an agreement with a seller - if its possible at all - but I have had some very significant success with offers under listing prices this year, and I anticipate more to come.

I've also experienced buyers using their inspection contingencies on my listings to negotiate concessions that seem quite unwarranted based on our disclosures - a practice I believe has become quite widespread this year, as the seller has to chose between accepting a concession, or potentially going back on market, and likely receiving lower offers (if any).

So how long might this continue?

Of course its impossible to predict, but the most likely outcome is that things stay largely the same in the near term with seasonal fluctuations. However there are a couple of foreseeable factors that might shake the market out of it current malaise. Very predictably, Jerome Powell's term as Chairman of the Fed will come to an end in May next year. President Trump will then appoint a new Chairman. Trump has made it quite clear that he would like to see lower interest rates, and there's every reason to believe he will try to exert influence on the next chairman to achieve this. If successful, lower rates will likely lead to more competition in the real estate market and a return to rising prices.

Meanwhile, San Francisco is the epicenter of AI startup activity, with twice as much venture funding flowing into the city as the next largest US Metro. (My former neighborhood of Hayes Valley has even been nicknamed "Cerebral Valley"). The ongoing AI boom is creating high paying jobs, and likely to stimulate all parts of the Bay Area housing market - especially Marin with its scenic beauty, charming towns and highly rated schools.

In conclusion, while the Marin property market is currently relatively weak, it won't stay this way forever, and we may look back on 2025 as one of the best opportunities for qualified buyers to get their foot in the door, and negotiate a great deal on a home here. If you have any questions about the market or specific properties, I'm always happy to hear from you!

Note - If this is your general email from me, please know I only send occasional thoughtful messages. I do not flood your inbox with boring missives. (I have a couple more in store for July). I hope you enjoyed my analysis and thoughts. I always welcome your feedback.