Marin Real Estate Market Update Spring 2025

May 10, 2025

Marin Spring Market Update

In the haunting 2023 movie Leave the World Behind, Tesla's self driving capabilities are hacked causing them to pile into each other blocking the road ahead. (See the full scene with Ethan Hawke & Julia Roberts at the end of this message).

I don't want to be over dramatic, but its beginning to feel like a decent metaphor for our current housing market in Marin.

In just the last week alone there have been 120 new listings in Marin, with only 46 sales closing. And while its fair to say that the current 620 listings isn't high compared with pre-covid years, its a huge increase over 2023 & 2024, and with only 720 closes year to date, we are as close to a buyer's market in Marin as I've seen for a long while.

When interest rates shot up in 2022, there was an expectation that the market would falter as the monthly cost to buyer of owning suddenly skyrocketed, but with homeowners coveting their low mortgage rates listings slowed to a pace where there were enough qualified and eager buyers to soak them up, which underpinned prices.

For a while this balance kept prices generally maintained, but over the last 3 years as seller's desire to move has slowly outweighed their desire to keep their low interest rate, and most have come to accept that we aren't going to see dramatically lower interest rates any time soon, consequently we have seen a slow but steady rise in the number of listings on the market, and a corresponding weakening of prices.

Until this spring listing were still significantly below their pre-Covid numbers, and while the Covid era saw an extraordinary number of listings, we are now back at a level close to the level in the late 2010's.

Meanwhile, buyers have become increasing reticent to pull the trigger. While some properties are still selling fast and over asking with multiple offers, these are becoming rarer, and we're seeing growing numbers of price reductions, and more properties are falling out of contract as buyers with contingencies have second thoughts about their decisions.

Political and economic uncertainty, are driving this market, and so the listings are piling up.

Without brisk sales the mood of buyers is reinforced - there's no sense of urgency as there is a fair chance that the general drift in buyers favor will continue. Why buy now if conditions might get better in the future?

Zillow National Market Heat Index

The chart above is Zillow's National Heat Index. What it shows is 6 years of seasonal spring peaks, rising through COVID and the low interest era, then declining through the last 3 years. (Click on the image to drill down)

This is the national picture, but while nuanced, the picture is similar in Marin.

Zillow doesn't have specific numbers for our county, so I've drawn data for our surrounding markets that paints a very interesting picture. Overall, in each of the 4 areas where Zillow provides data we have seen heat rise and then fall back to about pre-covid levels.

However its a very uneven picture with San Jose and San Francisco still being quite a strong market for sellers while the North Bay leans far more in favor of buyers.

Anecdotally, my colleagues in the South Bay tell me business continues to be brisk and properties are selling in thew $1500 - $2500 per square foot range (More on PP Sq ft here) far above what we see even in Southern Marin.

I believe this is reassuring for our market. Most people agree Marin is a more attractive place to live than the Peninsula, but just a bit too far from Silicon Valley. If the price differential increases, that underpins our market, and there is talk of a coming technology boom in San Fransisco - a far easier commute from Marin. All speculation of course, but I don't doubt the long term value of homes in Marin.

The Remainder of 2025

While its impossible to predict the future, and unexpected events can have a significant impact on the market, its fair to expect normal seasonal patterns this year.

As we approach the summer lull, new listings will diminish as will buyer activity. With a build up of active listings this late in the spring selling season, its highly likely there will be a lot of motivated sellers left with unsold properties through the summer.

Average days on market will increase, as will the opportunity for buyers to negotiate with sellers.

Many potential buyers will continue to sit on the sidelines, worried that prices will continue to soften or waiting until they find that unicorn property that checks all their boxes.

Meanwhile, savvy buyers will seize the opportunity that is presented, knowing that even if the market deteriorates in the near term, they have an asset that they can live in and will almost certainly appreciate in the longer term.

After all, the rule of thumb "time in the market beats timing the market" applies to residential real estate as much as it does to stocks.

Owning your own home is the number one way Americans have built wealth, and most likely you'll only be able to pinpoint the bottom of the market when its in the rear view mirror. Meanwhile unlike other investments you can enjoy your home even if the value temporarily dips.

Not owning a home if you can afford one is essentially shorting the market as a neutral position is +1.

Betting against home values rising in the long terms is akin to betting against the American economy.

What if you're thinking of selling?

I always advise people not to sell if they have a better alternative, but sometimes regardless of the market, it make sense - a growing family, a job opportunity, and inherited property, or a home that's just become the wrong fit.

If selling isn't something that it makes sense to delay, then know that despite the current headwinds for sellers if your property is prepared, presented and priced well, its likely to sell reasonably quickly at an acceptable price. Choosing an capable local agent will help ensure this is the case.

Meanwhile, most likely you'll also be buying a replacement property, in which case you'll be on the other side and able to benefit from an easier market to buy in. So....

Curiously the famous poster shown above that was created during the Blitz in London (the town I grew up in) was one of a set of three, another of the set is shown below - something to dwell on.

If this is your 1st market update from me, please know I only send occasional thoughtful messages. I do not flood your inbox with boring missives. I hope you enjoyed my analysis and thoughts. I always welcome your feedback.